Background

			BACKGROUND The west coast of Sumatra lies over one of the planet's most active subduction zones. Coral drilling and excavations on the coastal plain show clear patterns of major seismic adjustments. The uplift experienced in mega quakes is an indication of the size of the quakes that resulted and the frequency has been show to be 200-230 years. We are convinced that we are now overdue for the next large event. In Aceh we know that thousands of victims lost their lives when they were swept out to see by receeding tsunami tides and many died slowly over the following days with no hope of rescue. After the Nias quake, hundreds were trapped in fallen buildings. We want to be sure that this situation is not repeated. The scale of the area under threat and the lack of infrastructure means that tens of thousands living in isolation with look to our vessel as their best chance for rescue. Ideally we need a fleet of small ships but we are constrained by funding to one ship for the moment.

Seismic Synopsis
The predicted mega quake in our area moved dramatically closer over the past weeks. Since September 12th, our area has experienced one mega quake (8.4) , 2 giant quakes (7.8 & 7.1) and over 75 quakes larger than 4.5 intensity.

We are more than every focused on being prepared for the next predicted mega event that seismologists say has the potential to create destruction on a scale similar to the Aceh quake and tsunami.

We have added the recent cluster of very large earthquakes to the historic records for our area. This one map tells the story better than any words.

Many hundreds of thousands are clearly in harms way and we cant rest until we have tried every avenue to mitigate the risks and to prepare for the inevitable.

The aftermath of these recent quakes will require years of rebuilding and community support work for Island Aid so we have a short term need and a long term responsibility to do everything possible for this hard hit and isolated area.

Note the 2007 quake cluster added by me to one of Cal Tech's maps. This is yet to be confirmed by the team who are studying the Sumatra Plate area. The Siberut /Telos area (between the 2005 and 2007 events) is now very highly loaded and overdue to slip. Observation and GPS monitoring confirm an alarming rate of subsidence on Siberut's East coast coupled with large creep measurements.

			This is an unprecedented situation. Professor Kerry Sieh of Caltech distributed tsunami warning posters in the Mentawais and Nias one year BEFORE the Aceh and Nias mega quakes. He has been monitoring our area for 15 years with a network of GPS stations and has been conducting coral drilling research in an effort to understand how subduction zones function. In short, he is the world authority on this area and we take his warnings very very seriously. Why put ourselves in harm's way? You might be asking yourself why we don't sell up and move somewhere safe before the 'big one' hits.... we sometimes think about that but having seen what mega quakes and tsunamis did in Aceh and Nias we feel that we have to do everything in our power to be prepared and to be proactive. We may yet be spared a catastrophic disaster here.... the plates will move but they may do so incrementally rather than in one devastating slip. Either way there will be collateral damage and an urgent need for mobile and well equipped first responders. That is a role we know we can play and it seems nobody else is interested in stepping up to take it on. On the mainland people have a lot more choice about how they face up to this threat. Out in the islands options are very limited. In the off shore Sumatran islands the tsunami warning period will be much shorter than on the mainland. A lot of preparation is needed or tens of thousands of lives will be lost. Recent very large earthquakes in the southern Mentawais have left thousands homeless and facing relocation to higher ground. Fortunately there were no tsunamis generated and the epicenters of the quakes were not under cities or large towns. Next time we may not be so lucky and it is prudent, indeed imperative, that anyone with the ability to mobilize resources should do all in their power to prepare for the worst case scenario. After the lessons learned in Acheh and Nias, it would be irresponsible for us to do anything less than our utmost to preempt loss of life and livelihood in what now seems to be an inevitable and huge seismic adjustment now geologically overdue.

			WHY WE NEED A PREEMPTIVE APPROACH Our innovation is to take a preemptive approach to the clearly identified seismic risks our area now faces. We want to have our new ship ready and in active service as soon as possible. "The time is now to start mitigating for such an event," said Kerry Sieh, who is attached to the California Institute of Technology's Tectonics Observatory. "I don't know with certainty that it's going to happen but our team is telling people on the coast that they have to expect that this will happen in the lifetime of their children." Since the Sept 12 & 13 mega quakes just south of the Mentawais Prof Sieh has said that the highly stressed Siberut section will now rupture "sooner rather than later". The US$60 million tsunami warning system being slowly installed in our area will be of no use to the 100,000 plus population of the Mentawai and Batu Islands. There will be at most 7-10 minutes between a mega quake in the near vicinity and the arrival of what the experts predict will be at least a 5-6m high tsunami. About 80% of the population live in the projected wash up zone for a tsunami of this height.

			OUR ROLE WITH AID PARTNERS No other agency or NGO is equipped to take on a first responder role in our area. The Indonesian Navy have one small patrol boat based here. Surf Aid have made substantial progress with malaria erradication initiatives, immunizations and health education programs. They are working on tsunami mitigation but only in villages close to surf breaks. They work with public transport and small speedboats and our large aid supply vessel will compliment their efforts. We will support all NGOs who require transport or an aid platform in the large number of villages that are not near well know tourism facilities. Government agencies are crippled by the lack of safe transportation as we will cooperate with them when we have space available. The Mentawai and Batu Islands have some of the worst health statistics in all of Indonesia. Implentation of our Disaster Readiness programs and partnering with other NGOs will be the measure of our success. Obviously we will be tested by any major natural disaster and that is our core reason for being.

			Transport has always been the biggest impediment to the sustainable development of the Mentawais / Batus and as a result the Islands have been plundered by the timber barons and bomb boats for decades. One of our core objectives is to support community initiatives that conserve Mentawai rain-forests and coral reef systems for the ultimate benefit of the Mentawai people and as a small but critical contribution to the much larger goal of maintaining global bio-diversity, slowing loss of endangered species and protecting remaining humid rain forest resources. We know our strengths and weaknesses and we want to focus on remote island communities and their surrounding ecosystems and leave the mainland challenges to other better funded NGOs and Government agencies.

			Long standing health & education issues in the Mentawais are far more serious and debilitating than the conditions that communities were facing in Aceh or Nias prior to the 2004-5 mega quakes. Infrastructure in the Mentawais is almost completely lacking and there is not much sign of the Government mobilizing the resources needed to change that for a long time to come. A small aid ship is only part of the long list of what is needed in our area. Once we have the shipping service running, it will provide the critical transport and re-supply support that all NGOs need to be effective in the field. In Aceh and Nias Island Aid provided a safe mobile floating base for many other NGOs enabling us jointly to bring comprehensive aid to communities who had been too isolated for mainstream aid delivery to reach. We feel that our new shipping service will catalyze mitigation and reconstruction efforts by many others and bring attention to the area and our work. All NGOs and donor organizations need to monitor programs they fund and the shipping service will facilitate that in a very cost effective way. We know that what we are suggesting is 'outside the box' but we remain passionate about the importance of building an effective & sustainable 'sea bridge' in this volatile area.

			HOW WE PLAN TO FUND OUR PROGRAM What differentiates us from conventional aid organizations is that we offer corporations and business owners with an innovative corporate responsibility solution. Rather than ask for a hand-out or chase conventional donor funds via foundations and agencies, we work with corporations who seek a more hands-on relationship with both the provider and the recipients of humanitarian aid. This makes best use of our time and sponsors can see what their funds are achieving in the field... in fact they can even visit the target communities where we work to lend a hand during their vacation time or to evaluate our joint efforts. Interactive aid is growing trend and we have a compelling package to offer our partners.